I am all for the explosion of parallels. They’re fun. But it also feels like the sports card makers are trying to pull the wool over our eyes. Consider the “1 of 1.” It is unique, which presumably means it is of scarcity that drives-up the price. A particular product might not only have cards numbered “1 of 1,” but also cards out of 10 and 100 and 1000. . . And. . . that’s all great. It is good fun to collect these cards. But when the number of parallels explode from a modest baseline — with many, many low numbered parallels — are they truly scarce? If a card company makes ten slightly distinct “1 of 1” cards, shouldn’t we just view them as out of 10?
A great example comes with printing plates. They are technically unique. In hockey, their prices have always seems low for such rarity. I am sure some of that is just idiosyncrasy — for whatever reason, they just haven’t “caught on.” But, some of that is probably because every “one of a kind” printing plate is actually a “1 of 4.” Why? Because its hard to imagine the differentiation of the “cyan vs. magenta vs. yellow vs. black” plates is sufficient for collectors to really “buy-in” to a notion of uniqueness.
If someone really buys into the notion that a unique card deserves greater value, however small the “differentiation factor,” then ask why no one is pressuring Panini (or Upper Deck or Topps) to have a random worker end of the production line randomly put doodles onto cards passing-by.
The Comfort Zone: Manufacturing Scarcity
Of course, card companies are doing exactly what we would expect them to: increase sales. They tried, tested and (ultimately) confirmed that their sales improve upon creating dozens of parallel categories. Honestly, that’s fair enough.
But, the method dominates. As I see it, they are sticking to what they know…. they are sticking to what are comfortable with. . . which is to say, “manufacturing scarcity.” For us collectors, we need them to get uncomfortable. They need to innovate and elbow-grease their way into new hearts and minds.
As of now, they run the production lines, they own the printing presses… they are well positioned to do tweaks to existing products that ups their attractiveness-level. But, be warned! there is a fundamental contradiction at play: to create more scarce cards, the company actually has to print more scarce cards — thus watering down the specialness of getting a rare card, because now there are many other rare cards that could be pulled. Getting a rare card these days in not a rare event!
Going Beyond the Supply-Side: Manufacturing Demand
So, the problem: manufacturing perceptions of scarcity to drive sales can only go so far. In the end, these many unique cards (that are individually rare, but not as a class) need homes. There is only so much cash floating amongst existing collectors to bid these prices up. With the stock of rare cards growing, the collector’s pool of dollars gets diluted. And, so, we come to the main point!
The major players in the trading card industry must seek to drive-up demand for trading cards amongst new household, rather than focusing on ways to convince pre-existing hobbyists that to keep buying more of the many (seemingly) rare chase cards. In short, they have to drive the substance of scarcity, which is the demand-side of the equation.
This is inherently uncomfortable. Card companies, for instance, are about making cool cards, not public outreach. But public outreach is what they have to do. A major driver of growing the hobby would be bringing youth and young adults into the fold. (At risk of sounding cynical, they are tomorrows money-makers.) If young people don’t pick up collecting, then card values will fall in the long-term, as the aging class of current collectors … well…. to be blunt… die-off.
The “How” of Raising Demand
I’m just an obnoxious “armchair industrialist.” How to pull this off is not obvious; it will likely take many many prongs. But, a couple of thoughts…
One obvious starting point is ensuring a variety of products that are at once affordable and offer good value: this category of cards, targeted towards new collectors, can’t be an excuse for junk product, because then they won’t be coming back. It has to be fun to collect. Another option is to do giveaways for students. Most schools and universities are okay with “light-touch advertising” insofar as that simply means giving away freebies. Likewise for organized sports teams/leagues.
It also means actively advertising. Likely, it is wise to pull-in folks that are already primed — such as handing out cards to families at sports games (generally an indicator of disposable income). It might also mean including non-card prizes that those “lukewarm” collectors would appreciate chasing. (Not unlike the Tim Hortons hockey card promotion that takes place in Canada — which gives away gift cards, vehicles, chances to meet athletes, etc.)
But, this is just a couple ideas, off-the-top-of-the-head. It is the industry’s brainstorm on which the steady appreciation (pray, not depreciation!) of millions (if not billions) worth of collectibles depends!