Thank you for visiting my website, which launched in October, 2020, as part of a broader project to track the value of sports collectibles.
I hope, in time, to share a broad array of data and models with which to evaluate the value of your own collection. For now, I am doing my best to just get this website started.
That means a few things. Most importantly, this is a project that evolves. Both in quality of projections — as I learn from the data, I can better model my predictions (on the value of trading cards) — and of breadth — as I have time to collect more and more and more data, I am able to offer more estimates for a greater of variety of cards, both within and across categories (baseball, basketball, hockey, football, Magic, Pokemon… and on and on and on….)
Our Major “Value-Added”
For now, let me stress the website’s major motivation, its value-added: I want to share what I hope to do better, or at least different, than the other guys out there — many of whom, for the record, I have a lot of respect for.
First, I want to focus my project on auction prices, so as to not muck-up my estimates of collectibles’ values with the millions of unreasonable asking prices that are out there. Second, I care about how estimates are produced. In my next writing, I will share with you how (i) statistical methods matter — by freeing us of our potential biases (whether as expert appraisers or hobbyists) in appraising cards we have attachments to — and how (ii) statistical inference can allow us to learn a lot about the world, with relatively little data. We don’t need to observe the value of every single card in the universe to make reasonable estimates about what those cards might be worth.
And that brings me full circle to a closing comment: we’re evolving. Its hard to make good estimates. But, as we learn what characteristics of a card best predicts its value (be it type of sport: baseball or basketball; be it the player featured: LeBron James or Tom Brady; be it the series: Topps or Upper Deck or Panini; or be it the value-added features: whether that’s memorabilia (jersey, patch, stick, bat, glove, ball…), autograph, rookie card status, etc.
So, please stick with me. Check-in (often, if you’d be so kind), and let’s learn something about this hobby together.
Best,
K.S. @ sportcardvalues.com